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Abstract

Afghanistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The past and projected future (up to the year 2100) climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed through regression analyses. The salient climate variables were studied under different scenarios using the updated version of global climate models (CMIP6). The average temperature in Afghanistan has risen by 1.827°C since 1960, and precipitation has decreased during the time of study in the country, but not significantly; however, the precipitation is heterogeneous across the country. The future projection of the maximum temperature will vary from 0.75 to 5.91 °C, and the minimum temperature increase will vary from 0.51 to 5.64°C under different scenarios. The precipitation shows a very uncertain status in the given scenarios. Unless action is taken, climate change will pose even bigger threats to crop production and food security in Afghanistan. Adaptation measures are required to sustain agricultural productivity, reduce vulnerability, and enhance the resilience of the agricultural system to climate change. Adaptation to climate change also has social, economic, and political dimensions, which require significant investments.

Keywords

Agriculture Crop production Climate change Precipitation Temperature Adaptation

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Safi, L., & Safi, A. ghias. (2024). Assessing Agricultural Sector Vulnerability and Coping Strategies to Climate Change in Afghanistan. Journal of Natural Sciences – Kabul University, 7(Special.Issue), 91–112. https://doi.org/10.62810/jns.v7iSpecial.Issue.92
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