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Abstract
Afghanistan’s complex geological and tectonic setting makes the country highly susceptible to natural hazards, particularly earthquakes. This study focuses on seismic hazard analysis to evaluate earthquake risks in Afghanistan’s most vulnerable regions and to support effective risk mitigation strategies. The research aims to identify major seismic threats and assess their potential impacts on the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Given the significant damage earthquakes can cause across different regions, the study proposes strategic approaches to minimize their adverse environmental and resource-related consequences. Emphasis is placed on adopting holistic disaster risk management frameworks that consider Afghanistan’s socio-economic conditions and environmental constraints. Analytical models and hazard assessments demonstrate the critical role of government capacity-building and community-level training in disaster preparedness. The findings provide valuable guidance for policymakers and disaster managers, promoting informed decision-making through reliable seismic hazard data to enhance environmental sustainability and natural resource protection in earthquake-prone areas.
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References
- Ali, Q. (2005). World housing encyclopedia report on Pakistan. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
- Ahmadi, M., & Kajita, R. (2017). Urban land development and seismic evaluation: A case study of Kabul, Afghanistan. Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, 34(2), 123–135.
- Ambraseys, N., & Bilham, R. (2003). Earthquakes in Afghanistan. Seismological Research Letters, 42(2), 107–123.
- Bai, X., Liu, J., & Zhang, T. (2024). Site investigation and seismic isolation effectiveness in Luding, China. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 21(4), 245–258.
- Bakhshi, H., & Rezaie, Z. (2021). Preparation of acceleration maps for seismic improvement of structures in Sabzevar City. Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering, 9(2), 101–119. https://doi.org/10.22075/JRCE.2021.19219.1363
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- Field, E. H. (2005). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the integration of attenuation models with fault characterization. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 110(B3), B03304.
- Ghodrati Amiri, A., & Khodapanahi, M. (2015). Seismic hazard analysis and uniform hazard spectra for Kerman, Iran. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 44(8), 1481–1497.
- Hosseini Bakhshi, M. R. (n.d.). Seismic risk analysis and acceleration mapping for Nishapur City. Journal of Modeling in Engineering.
- Iman, A., & N. B. (2015). Artificial acceleration mapping in the Iranian plateau using random approach. Journal of Earthquake Science and Engineering.
- Kuehn, N. M., & Abrahamson, N. (2020). Spatial correlations of ground motion in non-ergodic seismic hazard analysis. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 49(1), 4–23.
- Milad, D., & M. M. (2018). Seismic hazard analysis of Bushehr City under two high-risk faults: DSHA & PSHA. National Conference on Fundamental Research in Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Development.
- NEA. (2019). Comparison of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of nuclear power plants in regions with different seismic activity. Nuclear Energy Agency.
- Prada, D. A., Sanabria, M. P., Torres, A. F., Álvarez, M. A., & Gómez, J. (2018). Seismic persistence analysis of Hindu Kush nests via fractal dimension. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1002(1), 012010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1002/1/012010
- Rahimi, M. J., Kaiwaan, A., Anwari, S., Azimi, S. J., & Rezaie, Z. (2026). Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan). Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering, 14(3).
- Rustami, S., et al. (2017). Structural and tectonic evolution of central Afghanistan using remote sensing and gravity data. Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 6(6), 313. https://doi.org/10.4172/2381-8719.1000313
- Shams Aldane, I., & N. M. (2018). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of major Iranian faults. Proceedings of the 18th Iranian Geophysical Conference.
- Shnizai, M., Sadeghi, A., & Naseri, H. (2023). Seismic hazard analysis of Kabul Basin through field study and remote sensing. Geophysical Journal, 58(3), 301–318.
- Yucemen, M. (2013). Probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance risks in Turkey. Earthquake Risk Assessment, 15(1), 42–53.
- Zare, M., & Maleki, M. (2022). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Khark Island. Seismic Risk Journal, 40(2), 119–130.
References
Ali, Q. (2005). World housing encyclopedia report on Pakistan. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
Ahmadi, M., & Kajita, R. (2017). Urban land development and seismic evaluation: A case study of Kabul, Afghanistan. Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, 34(2), 123–135.
Ambraseys, N., & Bilham, R. (2003). Earthquakes in Afghanistan. Seismological Research Letters, 42(2), 107–123.
Bai, X., Liu, J., & Zhang, T. (2024). Site investigation and seismic isolation effectiveness in Luding, China. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 21(4), 245–258.
Bakhshi, H., & Rezaie, Z. (2021). Preparation of acceleration maps for seismic improvement of structures in Sabzevar City. Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering, 9(2), 101–119. https://doi.org/10.22075/JRCE.2021.19219.1363
Bakhshi, H., Rahimi, M. J., Rastin, M. N., & Rezaie, Z. (2025). Seismic hazard evaluation and acceleration curves for Kunduz City (Afghanistan). Computational Engineering and Physical Modeling, 8(1), 1–24.
Bakhshi, H., Rezaie, Z., & Sadeghi, M. (2024). Seismic hazard assessment in Kunduz, Afghanistan: Using deterministic and probabilistic methods with Seisrisk software. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 45(6), 568–584.
Bergman, E. A. (2006). A comprehensive earthquake catalogue for the Afghanistan region. In J. W. Dewey (Ed.), Seismicity of Afghanistan and vicinity (pp. 1–60). U.S. Geological Survey.
Boyd, O. S., Mueller, C. S., & Rukstales, K. S. (2007). Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard map for Afghanistan (Open-File Report 2007–1137). U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20071137
Dastjerdi, A., et al. (2018). Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Bushehr. Proceedings of the National Conference on Fundamental Research in Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Development.
Dewey, J. W., Bergman, E. A., Hopper, M. G., & Sipkin, S. A. (2006). Overview of the seismicity of Afghanistan. In J. W. Dewey (Ed.), Seismicity of Afghanistan and vicinity (pp. 1–60). U.S. Geological Survey.
Fahimi Farzam, M., et al. (2018). An overview of seismic risk analysis and PSHA/DSHA methodology. Road Journal, 87–104.
Field, E. H. (2005). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the integration of attenuation models with fault characterization. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 110(B3), B03304.
Ghodrati Amiri, A., & Khodapanahi, M. (2015). Seismic hazard analysis and uniform hazard spectra for Kerman, Iran. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 44(8), 1481–1497.
Hosseini Bakhshi, M. R. (n.d.). Seismic risk analysis and acceleration mapping for Nishapur City. Journal of Modeling in Engineering.
Iman, A., & N. B. (2015). Artificial acceleration mapping in the Iranian plateau using random approach. Journal of Earthquake Science and Engineering.
Kuehn, N. M., & Abrahamson, N. (2020). Spatial correlations of ground motion in non-ergodic seismic hazard analysis. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 49(1), 4–23.
Milad, D., & M. M. (2018). Seismic hazard analysis of Bushehr City under two high-risk faults: DSHA & PSHA. National Conference on Fundamental Research in Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Development.
NEA. (2019). Comparison of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of nuclear power plants in regions with different seismic activity. Nuclear Energy Agency.
Prada, D. A., Sanabria, M. P., Torres, A. F., Álvarez, M. A., & Gómez, J. (2018). Seismic persistence analysis of Hindu Kush nests via fractal dimension. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1002(1), 012010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1002/1/012010
Rahimi, M. J., Kaiwaan, A., Anwari, S., Azimi, S. J., & Rezaie, Z. (2026). Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan). Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering, 14(3).
Rustami, S., et al. (2017). Structural and tectonic evolution of central Afghanistan using remote sensing and gravity data. Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 6(6), 313. https://doi.org/10.4172/2381-8719.1000313
Shams Aldane, I., & N. M. (2018). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of major Iranian faults. Proceedings of the 18th Iranian Geophysical Conference.
Shnizai, M., Sadeghi, A., & Naseri, H. (2023). Seismic hazard analysis of Kabul Basin through field study and remote sensing. Geophysical Journal, 58(3), 301–318.
Yucemen, M. (2013). Probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance risks in Turkey. Earthquake Risk Assessment, 15(1), 42–53.
Zare, M., & Maleki, M. (2022). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Khark Island. Seismic Risk Journal, 40(2), 119–130.