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Abstract

Climate change is one of the main challenges in the production of horticultural products and can increase the severity of diseases and pests. This study investigated the impact of climate change on Gummosis disease in almond, apricot, and plum trees in Daykundi province, Afghanistan. Field data were collected from 384 formers in 2024. The data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis. The results showed that drought has a positive and significant effect on the severity of the disease (β = 0.805 in the first model and β = 0.662 in the second model, p < 0.001)."On the other hand, an increase in irrigation frequency had a negative and significant effect on the severity of the disease (β = -0.269, p < 0.001). The coefficient of determination for the second model (R² = 0.701) indicates that 70.1% of the disease variance is explained by the two variables, drought and irrigation frequency. These findings suggest that reduced rainfall and increased temperatures lead to higher vulnerability of trees to Gummosis disease, and proper water resource management can help reduce the severity of the disease. In general, improving irrigation management and using drought- and disease-resistant cultivars are key strategies for reducing the negative effects of climate change and maintaining the sustainability of stone fruits production in Daykundi.

Keywords

Daikundi Drought Gummosis Irrigation Frequency Stone Fruit Trees

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Bahlolzada, H., Hashemi, S. R., & Ehsas, J. A. (2026). Effects of Drought and Irrigation Frequency on Gummosis Severity in Almond, Apricot, and Plum in Daikundi Province. Journal of Natural Sciences – Kabul University, 8(4), 83–95. Retrieved from https://jns.edu.af/jns/article/view/485
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